Photo: Eneas de Troya

With the inau­gu­ra­tion of a new pre­si­dent in Mexi­co in 2024, natio­nal secu­rity once again takes cen­ter sta­ge in public deba­te. For years, Mexi­co has faced high levels of vio­len­ce, much of it attri­bu­ted to orga­ni­zed cri­me. As the new admi­nis­tra­tion begins, citi­zens, experts, and inter­na­tio­nal orga­ni­za­tions are clo­sely wat­ching the poli­cies and stra­te­gies that will be imple­men­ted to address the­se issues. Below is an analy­sis of what can be expec­ted in terms of secu­rity in the medium term.

1. Continuity and Changes in Security Strategy

One of the key fac­tors to obser­ve will be whether the new pre­si­dent will choo­se to con­ti­nue the secu­rity poli­cies of the pre­vious admi­nis­tra­tion, such as the mili­ta­ri­za­tion stra­tegy through the deploy­ment of the Natio­nal Guard, or if new initia­ti­ves will be intro­du­ced. The use of the mili­tary has been a con­tro­ver­sial topic; whi­le it has shown some results in com­ba­ting orga­ni­zed cri­me, it has also faced cri­ti­cism due to its impact on human rights and its long-term effec­ti­ve­ness.

It is likely that the new govern­ment will seek to balan­ce mili­tary pre­sen­ce with strengthe­ning civi­lian secu­rity ins­ti­tu­tions, such as local and sta­te poli­ce for­ces, which have been wea­ke­ned in recent years due to lack of trai­ning and resour­ces.

2. Strengthening Interinstitutional Coordination

A key cha­llen­ge for the new admi­nis­tra­tion will be impro­ving coor­di­na­tion bet­ween the various secu­rity ins­ti­tu­tions. The lack of coope­ra­tion and dupli­ca­tion of efforts bet­ween fede­ral, sta­te, and muni­ci­pal for­ces has been poin­ted out as an obs­ta­cle in the fight against orga­ni­zed cri­me. The new pre­si­dent may prio­ri­ti­ze mecha­nisms that allow for grea­ter inte­gra­tion and smoother com­mu­ni­ca­tion bet­ween the­se bodies, along with crea­ting public poli­cies that ensu­re more effi­cient use of resour­ces in cri­me pre­ven­tion.

3. Focus on Crime Prevention

Along­si­de vio­len­ce con­tain­ment stra­te­gies, the new admi­nis­tra­tion is expec­ted to pla­ce a strong empha­sis on cri­me pre­ven­tion poli­cies. This could inclu­de grea­ter invest­ment in social, edu­ca­tio­nal, and employ­ment pro­grams, espe­cially tar­ge­ted at youth in vul­ne­ra­ble areas, with the goal of redu­cing the allu­re that orga­ni­zed cri­me has over them.

The focus on pre­ven­tion is a gro­wing demand from both aca­de­mic sec­tors and civil orga­ni­za­tions, which advo­ca­te for a secu­rity stra­tegy that addres­ses the struc­tu­ral cau­ses of vio­len­ce, such as poverty, unem­ploy­ment, and inequa­lity.

4. Reforms to the Criminal Justice System

Strengthe­ning the cri­mi­nal jus­ti­ce sys­tem is another area likely to gain pro­mi­nen­ce. The high levels of impu­nity in Mexi­co, lar­gely due to the inef­fi­ciency of inves­ti­ga­ti­ve and pro­se­cu­tion mecha­nisms, are one of the main reasons why many cri­mes go unre­por­ted and unpu­nished. The new admi­nis­tra­tion could push for reforms aimed at making judi­cial pro­ces­ses more effi­cient, as well as impro­ving the trai­ning and wor­king con­di­tions of jud­ges, pro­se­cu­tors, and law enfor­ce­ment per­son­nel.

5. Security Cooperation with the United States

Given the trans­na­tio­nal impact of orga­ni­zed cri­me, coope­ra­tion bet­ween Mexi­co and the Uni­ted Sta­tes on secu­rity will con­ti­nue to be a deter­mi­ning fac­tor. In the past, both coun­tries have wor­ked together through initia­ti­ves like the Méri­da Initia­ti­ve, which has faci­li­ta­ted colla­bo­ra­tion in areas such as drug, arms, and human traf­fic­king. The new govern­ment may seek to rene­go­tia­te or review the­se agree­ments to ensu­re that Mexi­co’s secu­rity prio­ri­ties are more clearly reflec­ted, whi­le main­tai­ning clo­se coope­ra­tion with its northern neigh­bor.

6. Challenges and Expectations

Whi­le the new pre­si­dent faces enor­mous expec­ta­tions to impro­ve secu­rity in the country, the­re are also deep struc­tu­ral cha­llen­ges to address. Orga­ni­zed cri­me remains a power­ful actor in many regions, and corrup­tion within secu­rity for­ces and the judi­cial sys­tem poses a sig­ni­fi­cant obs­ta­cle. Further­mo­re, gro­wing social pres­su­re for a more huma­ni­ta­rian and human rights-orien­ted stra­tegy, par­ti­cu­larly in com­mu­ni­ties affec­ted by vio­len­ce, will be a fac­tor that the new admi­nis­tra­tion must con­si­der.

In the medium term, the suc­cess of secu­rity poli­cies will depend on the government’s abi­lity to com­bi­ne for­ce­ful mea­su­res against orga­ni­zed cri­me with deep reforms in secu­rity and jus­ti­ce ins­ti­tu­tions, as well as a strong com­mit­ment to social cri­me pre­ven­tion. The new president’s focus on the­se areas will be cru­cial in sha­ping the futu­re of secu­rity in Mexi­co and redu­cing the levels of vio­len­ce that have pla­gued the country for deca­des.